When Machine Learning Meets Business Processes

Gabriel Marques Tavares

Data has become a valuable resource in the modern market. The immense value lies in the predictive power of data. Examples range from customer behavior to natural disasters. Businesses and governments control and monitor products, services, and goods, making these entities the primary collectors of data. The rapid growth of new technologies and software, aligned with the capability of also recording processes related to these commodities, has led to an abundance of data. Such data contain rich information, describing, for example, the quality of executed processes. However, extracting knowledge from the multitude of data is not a straightforward task.

What is Process Mining?

Process Mining is a data-driven discipline aimed at extracting insights specifically from organizational data. This data (often referred to as event data) is characterized by the recording of activities executed for example in business processes. There is a large spectrum of applications where event data is relevant, ranging from logistics and management to supply chain. Based on such event data, Process Mining delivers profound understanding about the respective processes, helping to improve the quality of services and products, saving both resources and time.

However, given the nature of event data, Process Mining applications and use cases are very complex. Process Mining must account for many diverse aspects. For instance, one might be interested in learning the relationships between activities and visualizing them (process discovery). Another example is correlating executions of real events with modeled behavior, detecting deviations and anomalies (conformance checking), possibly mitigating bottlenecks and inefficiencies. Predicting future behavior of an ongoing process might also lead to resource savings (predictive process monitoring). Different applications of Process Mining require different approaches and types of algorithms. For many problems, no single algorithm but a set of algorithms is necessary. Considering the complexity of both Process Mining applications and event data behavior, correctly choosing the appropriate sequence of algorithms is one of the key challenges.

Additionally, much of the event data cannot be directly used with traditional Machine Learning techniques. Event data is an aggregation of several complementary information layers. Extracting insights from this requires considering the relationships between these layers. However, many Machine Learning techniques cannot account for such multi-faceted information. There are several proposals within Process Mining to address this complex information, such as encoding techniques or tailored solutions capable of directly handling event data. The encoding approach aims to capture process behavior from several layers and transform such data in a way that it can be dealt with by Machine Learning models. One advantage of this approach is that it allows the deployment of current AI models without requiring any further adaptations. In contrast, solutions that directly digest event data in its raw format need tailored algorithms that have built-in process notions to handle the data's unique characteristics.

The latest developments in Process Mining

Recent advancements in Process Mining have followed two distinct directions. First, Process Mining has been used to identify and address potential problems before they occur. In other words, it brings us one step closer to the reality depicted in Steven Spielberg’s Minority Report, where crimes are anticipated and prevented before they take place. The foundation of this approach lies in learning the relationship between sequences of activities. The aim is to predict a future activity based on its past sequence trajectory. Such predictions rely on modern Machine Learning models, particularly those in the field of Deep Learning.

Recognizing the power of Process Mining and its potential applications also underscores the need to address and prevent any unwanted or harmful outcomes. Therefore, Process Mining deals with so-called “what-if”-analyses: What if activity X is predicted? What if counter-measure Y is enforced? How would this condition the activities in the future? For this reason, simulation models are an integral part of Process Mining.

A second direction in Process Mining has emerged with the rise of generative models and Large Language Models (LLMs). Applying LLMs to event data can reveal hidden patterns that impact process outcomes. Given LLMs’ strength in combining domain knowledge with temporal reasoning capabilities, they can enhance the quality of extracted knowledge.

Process Mining still faces many open and exciting research challenges, such as how to absorb different process attributes and make them useful for modeling. Applied to businesses, Process Mining could consider the underutilized labor force, the relationship between resources as well as the business’s time constraints to provide robust predictions for future actions. The more data is available, the richer are simulated scenarios.

The future of Process Mining

The intersection between process analysis and Machine Learning is ever increasing and the possibilities of connecting both fields are vast. On the one hand, solutions need to overcome technical and operational issues. For example, one technical issue lies in data representation and aggregation as models are often not prepared to digest event data. On the other hand, the analysis of “what-if”-scenarios can be made dependent on conditions such as working hours, available actors, or resources. Process Mining is further limited by the robustness and explainability of its predictions. Thorough methods are required because event data is very diverse, given different contexts. This calls for methods that are flexible enough to adapt to a wide range of domains. For that matter, another fascinating development in the analysis of business processes is the application of explainable AI methods. These methods help stakeholders to accept predictions when they can be interpreted in terms of human-understandable connections. Although most effort is currently devoted to performance improvement, explainability is important because the lack of trustworthy modeling will hinder the adoption of data-driven approaches in real-world environments.

To conclude, the future of Process Mining lies in its fusion with additional Machine Learning techniques. It is an exciting field of research that will improve decision-making based on data-driven insights, refine process executions, mitigate bottlenecks, and save resources.

About the Author

Dr. Gabriel Marques Tavares

Researcher, University of Munich (LMU)